- Trump described Russia's deadly Sumy missile strike as a "mistake" despite evidence suggesting it was deliberate
- Russia appears to be using peace talks to buy time while continuing attacks
- Five separate diplomatic tracks are running simultaneously with little concrete progress
- Military experts believe Putin is preparing for a major spring offensive
- European allies are making contingency plans for potential Ukrainian collapse
The recent missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 34 people and was the deadliest attack this year. US President Donald Trump called it a "horrific" attack but then said, "I was told they made a mistake." This comment raised eyebrows among Ukraine's allies, who see Russia's actions as deliberate terror tactics against civilians.
The Iskander missiles used in Sumy are known for their accuracy. The attack used a "double-tap" strategy - firing multiple missiles minutes apart - which seems designed to hit first responders who rush in after the initial strike. This tactic has become common in Russia's war playbook.
The True Purpose Behind Russia's Attacks
The weekend strike on Sumy shows what many analysts believe is Russia's real goal: to frighten Ukrainian civilians into giving up. Sumy sits near Ukraine's border with Russia, making it a strategic target as Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he wants a "buffer zone" inside Ukraine.
This deadly attack also highlighted problems with the White House's push for peace talks. Trump said on social media that Russia had to "get moving" but didn't set any deadlines or say what would happen if Russia didn't cooperate. He's mentioned possible tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, but hasn't committed to specific actions.
When talking about the war, Trump often shifts between criticizing Russia's attacks on civilians and making statements that almost blame Ukraine. After mentioning the Sumy attack, Trump later said, "When you start a war, you gotta know that you can win the war, right? You don't start a war with someone who's 20 times your size and then hope people give you some missiles." This statement wrongly suggests Ukraine started the conflict.
Russia's Diplomatic Shell Game
Russia's approach to peace talks looks like a "dizzying Catherine wheel of tangents" according to CNN's analysis. Moscow seems to be creating lots of diplomatic noise but making little real progress - possibly a strategy to buy time while continuing the war on its own terms.
The diplomatic efforts currently include at least five separate tracks:
- Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff's direct meetings with Putin in Russia
- Higher-level American and Russian diplomats meeting in Saudi Arabia
- Lower-level diplomatic meetings in Turkey about reopening embassies
- US-Ukraine talks in Washington about rare-earth minerals contracts
- A separate US-Ukraine peace track in Saudi Arabia
This complicated web of talks serves Russia's interests by creating confusion and delay. As one diplomatic source told CNN, this is "a standard Russian tactic to buy time while appearing engaged."
The Trump administration initially set ambitious timelines for peace - from 24 hours to 100 days. Now, there are no deadlines in sight, and the talks keep expanding in different directions.
Putin's Summer Strategy
Why does Putin want to drag out talks? Experts believe he sees Trump as easily distracted and looking for quick wins rather than complicated compromises. More importantly, Putin seems confident he can win important battlefield victories this summer that would strengthen Russia's position in any negotiations.
The attack on Sumy appears designed to create space along the border and force Ukraine to move troops there. Meanwhile, Russia is making slow but steady progress near Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence reports suggest Russia is building up forces near Kharkiv, possibly waiting for drier ground in May to launch a major spring offensive.
Ukraine faces serious challenges in the coming months. Officials have warned about artillery ammunition shortages, and recent promises of help from allies might not solve this problem quickly enough. A Ukrainian intelligence officer recently described the situation as "a very difficult summer" ahead.
Russia's Long-Term War Planning
Moscow has invested everything in this war and cannot afford anything less than victory. The current situation increasingly favors Russia as Ukraine struggles with manpower and resource needs, while the White House seems willing to break established economic and security norms.
Russia appears to be deliberately stalling for time because they believe time is on their side. As Russian forces continue attacking Ukrainian cities and slowly advancing on certain fronts, Putin shows little interest in freezing the current battle lines.
European allies are preparing for two possible unpleasant futures:
- A potential Ukrainian collapse requiring NATO's European members to hold back Russia without American help
- The creation of a "reassurance force" led by Britain and France to protect any future ceasefire
These preparations serve two purposes: they give Ukraine some security guarantees during peace talks, and they pressure Russia by showing there are consequences to stalling a peace plan.
The Diplomatic Merry-Go-Round
With each new round of talks, the terms of actual peace become more confusing. Putin seems less willing to offer even a partial pause as he believes Trump will not effectively punish him for refusing. The limited 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire - which was poorly implemented and barely followed - ends Friday, with no clear replacement in sight.
When asked about the talks with Russia and Ukraine, Trump said: "You know, there's a point at which you have to either put up or shut up." But critics point out that both Trump and the Kremlin seem happy to keep talking without making real commitments.
Trump appears reluctant to impose harsh sanctions or damage his relationship with Moscow. Meanwhile, the Kremlin shows no real desire to stop fighting. Trump added: "We'll see what happens, but I think it's going fine." This statement worries Ukrainian officials, who fear their country's fate might be overshadowed by other crises.
The Human Cost Continues
While diplomatic talks drag on, Ukrainian civilians continue to suffer. The missile strike on Sumy follows other recent attacks, including one that killed nine children at a playground in Kryvyi Rih days earlier. The Center for Countering Disinformation, a Ukrainian think-tank, reported that in the 22 days after a supposed ceasefire was announced, Russia killed nearly 2.5 times more Ukrainians than during the same period before the announcement.
These attacks have real consequences for ordinary Ukrainians. Families are torn apart, homes destroyed, and communities devastated. While diplomats fly between capital cities for talks, the people of Ukraine face daily threats from missiles, drones, and artillery.
As summer approaches and ground conditions improve, military analysts expect Russian forces to increase their offensive operations. Without sufficient ammunition and air defense systems, Ukrainian forces may struggle to protect civilians and hold territory against a better-equipped enemy.
Europe Prepares for the Worst
European nations aren't waiting to see how peace talks turn out. Britain and France are already planning for a possible "reassurance force" to protect any future ceasefire agreement. Other NATO members are quietly preparing for scenarios where American support for Ukraine might disappear entirely.
These preparations reflect growing concern about the direction of US policy and the reliability of American security guarantees. European defense ministers met recently at NATO headquarters in Brussels, with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth only attending virtually - a sign of shifting priorities that worries European allies.
For Ukraine, the coming months represent a critical period. If Russia achieves significant battlefield gains before any ceasefire can be implemented, Ukraine's negotiating position will be severely weakened. This explains why President Zelensky continues to urgently request more Patriot missile defense systems and artillery ammunition - resources that could determine whether Ukraine can maintain its independence in meaningful peace talks.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened in the Sumy missile strike? Russia launched a double-tap Iskander missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy on Saturday, April 12, 2025, killing 34 people. It was the deadliest attack on Ukraine this year and allegedly used cluster munitions to maximize civilian casualties.
Why did Trump call the Sumy attack a "mistake"? Trump said "I was told they made a mistake," suggesting someone (possibly Russian sources) had characterized the attack as unintentional. Military experts note that Iskander missiles are highly accurate, and the double-tap strategy suggests deliberate targeting.
What are the different diplomatic tracks currently running? At least five separate diplomatic efforts are running simultaneously: Trump envoy Witkoff's direct meetings with Putin; high-level US-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia; lower-level meetings in Turkey about embassies; US-Ukraine talks about minerals contracts; and a US-Ukraine peace track in Saudi Arabia.
What is Russia's apparent strategy in peace talks? Analysts believe Russia is deliberately creating multiple, confusing diplomatic channels to buy time while continuing military operations. This allows Russia to appear engaged in peace efforts while preparing for a major spring/summer offensive.
What are European allies doing to prepare? European nations, particularly Britain and France, are preparing a potential "reassurance force" to protect any future ceasefire. They're also making contingency plans for a scenario where Ukraine might face collapse without American assistance.
Why hasn't the ceasefire agreement been effective? The limited 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire was poorly implemented from the start. Russia also stated it would only fully implement the agreement if sanctions on Russian banks and exports were lifted. According to Ukrainian sources, Russian attacks actually increased during the supposed ceasefire period.
Is Ukraine likely to receive the military aid it needs? Ukraine has warned about artillery ammunition shortages in the coming weeks. While allies have pledged support, it remains unclear if these supplies will arrive in time or in sufficient quantities to counter Russia's expected spring offensive.
Image Credit: Donald Trump speaking at the 2013 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Photo by Gage Skidmore, Peoria, AZ, USA. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.